How to Project Sales for Holiday 2017

In 2016, Amazon saw the bulk of all holiday sales, with consumers primarily shopping online or via their Amazon mobile app. In fact, online holiday sales jumped 17.8% last year and this year are expected to climb 15.8%.

All this to say, third party Amazon sellers should expect a surge in their own sales during the holiday season. Actually, many marketplace sellers see the majority of their annual revenue in November and December, thanks to Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and other ongoing holiday sales events that drive buyers online and to Amazon.com.

But exactly how much will you make this holiday season? To help give you an idea, here are five simple ways to project your 2017 holiday sales:

 

1. Look at Last Year’s Data

If you’re a seasoned Amazon seller, the best place to start is by looking at your sales history from the 2016 holiday season — specifically November and December — and earlier if it’s available. Assuming you haven’t made any drastic changes to your product offerings, you should expect a similar outcome this year compared to last year.

Of course, your business has likely experienced growth in the last year, which means your 2016 holiday numbers will as well, bringing us to Step 2:

 

2. Calculate YOY Sales Growth

Has your business been growing on an annual basis? If so, calculate the actual growth rate, comparing July 2017 sales to July 2016 sales, or even July 2017 sales to June 2017 sales. If this isn’t your first holiday season, compare the growth between the November/December 2015 and November/December 2016.

Once you’ve figured out your growth percentage, apply it to the revenue number you gathered in Step 1. This will give you a good idea of how much higher your sales will be in 2017 compared to 2016.

If you have a different product line now, you’ll need to factor that in as well, which brings us to Step 3.

 

3. Evaluate Current Sales History for 2017

When you look at your sales history for Step 1, pay close attention to the sales history for each individual product you sell.

Are there any products that have been performing better than others? Any that just haven’t been selling? If you focus on items that you know sell well, you can factor their current sales history into your 2017 holiday sales projections (which should be higher with your new holiday inventory strategy).

Pro Tip:  If you have any stale products in your inventory, consider liquidating them and use the cash to invest in your holiday inventory that will sell.

 

4. See What’s Trending

Per Step 3, if you want to expand your holiday inventory to maximize sales, research what’s currently trending. What’s already popular on Amazon? What are the must-have items in your product category(ies)? Is there sports memorabilia for this year’s NFL or MLB champions, or any collectibles from a blockbuster film?

Once you figure out what makes sense for your storefront, look up its selling history on Amazon to get an idea for how it will sell for you.

 

5. Consult a Repricer

If after all this you are still not sure how much money your products will bring in, consider using a repricing service like Xsellco, Seller Engine or Feedvisor. You’ll be able to determine how to price your inventory to maximize sales and, depending on the service, may even get an estimate of how much you’ll make on a particular item.

Looking for more Q4 Amazon Seller Tips? Check out our holiday how-tos for Amazon sellers, including how to plan for Q4 and how to avoid an Amazon stockout.

 

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